• Matthew Lerner

Your Riskiest Assumption

Complete strangers pay me good money to coach and mentor them on growth marketing. Why?


I don’t always have great answers. But I try to ask great questions. Great questions cause great thinking => breakthroughs => smart business decisions.


As a VC, you learn to ask great questions to assess a business quickly. Here is the powerful question I ask every client:


“What’s your riskiest assumption?”


Think about your business goals for the next 6 months. (And six years?) What is the riskiest assumption you are making that might jeopardise those goals? In other words, if you miss your targets, what will be the most likely cause? Here’s some risky assumptions to get you thinking:

  • Will people intuitively understand what problem you solve for them?

  • Are people actually struggling with this problem?

  • Will they be willing to invest money (or time) in your solution?

  • Can you find them when they’re in a buying mindset?

  • Will they “feel the magic” of your solution before they give up trying it out?

  • Can you acquire new customers for very little money?

  • Some other risk?

So, what is your riskiest assumption?


Question 2 - Even More Important!

What is the quickest easiest way to test that assumption? (Without building a lot of product, spending a lot of money, or wasting a lot of time?)

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